Mitch Kapor, Vorstandsvorsitzender bei Linden Lab, dem Betreiber von Second Life, ehemaliger Gründer von Lotus 1–2-3 und “alter Hase” im IT Geschäft, gibt in einem Interview eine SWOT (Stärken, Schwächen, Chancen, Risiken) Analyse der virtuellen Welt.
Stärken: … the fact that the company has been able to be successful in creating a large ish Virtual World platform, and so there’s a lot of people who use it. There’s a real business there, which makes money. We probably understand more about how to make one of these things go than almost anyone, and it was very much at the center of this new ecosystem. Schwächen: I guess one way of summarizing it is to say Linden has a whole bunch of first mover advantages writ large. On the other hand… First mover advantages are sometimes overrated. … And sometimes the people who come in second have a much shorter learning curve … And so one of the great challenges for Linden is for its first mover advantage not to be a liability.
Obviously it would be an understatement to say significant continuing challenges with respect to the current business in everything from the stability and performance of the base platform to the quality of the user experience, … would say that the current user experience is anything close to what is needed to reach a mass market.
Chancen: But the opportunities, and I’ve been on record as having said this before, are just so large I don’t even know how to put a number on it because I believe that Virtual Worlds … is going to become as mainstream as the personal computer or the web itself over the next generation. So call it a hundred billion dollar market. So there’s insurmountable opportunities.
Risiken: And there’s an enormous amount of competition on every side, above, below, to the left, to the right in every sector you could imagine. So the penalty for having validated not just a market segment, but a whole new paradigm, is that everybody in the world thinks that you suck and that they can come in and do it better. So it’s an intensely competitive environment.
» Das Interview komplett auf Metanomics: Transcript of Mitch Kapor Interview